UK used LCV demand grows as new registrations plummet – Autovista24
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The UK new light-commercial vehicle (LCV) market endured its 11th successive month of decline in October. Meanwhile, used LCV demand has continued to grow. Andy Picton, specialist residual value analyst at Glass’s, examines the markets with Autovista24 editor Tom Geggus.
Demand for new LCVs fell by 15.1% last month, with 22,896 vans, pickups and chassis variants registered, SMMT data showed. This equated to 4,078 fewer models hitting the road than in October 2024. In the year to date, registrations were down by 10.2% at 264,160 units.
Against a backdrop of weak business confidence and a tough economic environment, demand for new LCVs was poor across all sectors. Pickups recorded a 20.2% decline, while vans under 2 tonnes gross-vehicle weight (GVW) fell 23.4%. LCVs weighing between 2 and 2.5 tonnes GVW declined by 41.2% compared to the same month last year.
Meanwhile, vans and chassis weighing between 2.5 and 3.5 tonnes GVW saw registrations decline by 7%. This equated to 16,443 new registrations, 1,240 units less than in October 2024. However, they still made up 71.8% of all units registered in the UK during the month.
The SMMT’s latest market outlook forecasts that the UK’s new LCV market will reach 321,000 units in 2025, down 8.7% on last year. Uptake is anticipated to grow 4.2% to 334,600 units in 2026, followed by a further 0.6% growth in 2027.
Continuous new LCV market declines underline the current struggles and economic pressures businesses are facing. Until an official decarbonisation scheme with LCV-specific public, depot and shared-hub charging infrastructure is in place, the transition to a zero-emission future will remain painfully slow. The upcoming Budget is also another uncertainty stopping businesses from investing.
Ford enjoyed another strong month. It held the top two positions in the best-selling new LCV table, with the Transit Custom and the Transit recording 4,110 and 2,589 registrations respectively.
The Mercedes-Benz Sprinter finished in third with 1,203 deliveries. Then came the Ford Ranger in fourth with 1,153 units, and the Volkswagen (VW) Transporter in fifth with 1,112 registrations.
The Peugeot Expert came sixth with 849 deliveries, followed by the Vauxhall Vivaro with 752 units. The VW Crafter came eighth with 745 registrations, and the Peugeot Partner finished ninth with 743 deliveries. 10th was taken by the Renault Trafic, accounting for 661 units.
Ford has enjoyed strong performances this year. The brand’s Transit Custom, Transit, and Ranger models took the top three positions in the year to date. The trio was followed by the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter in fourth, and the Vauxhall Vivaro in fifth.
October marked the first decline in 13 months for battery-electric van registrations up to 4.25 tonnes GVW. 2,132 units were registered compared with 2,263 one year ago. Nevertheless, the monthly market share of 9.2% was up from 8.4% in October 2024.
Year to date, electric vans weighing up to 4.25 tonnes GVW recorded 24,250 registrations, compared with 16,451 units in 2024. This represented a 47.4% year-on-year improvement. Fully-electric LCVs took a market share of 9.1% from January to October, up from 5.6% at the same point last year.
The latest SMMT forecast expects zero-emission vans weighing up to 3.5 tonnes GVW to reach a 9.7% market share. This equates to approximately 31,150 registrations and a growth of 47%. This share can then be expected to grow to 14% in 2026, meaning nearly 47,000 registrations.
In October, VW accounted for nearly a third of all new BEVs registered, weighing up to 3.5 tonnes GVW. Ford followed in second with a 20.1% hold. Then Peugeot came third with a 16.4% share. Toyota finished fourth with a 5.6% share, and Renault took fifth with a 5.5% slice of the market.
Vauxhall ended October in sixth with a 5.1% share. Maxus dropped to seventh with a 4.8% hold of the electric van market. Mercedes-Benz remained in eighth, claiming a 3.7% share. Nissan came ninth with a 1.6% hold. Citroen rounded out the top 10 with a 1.4% share.
The Volkswagen ID.Buzz Cargo accounted for 20.7% of all electric LCV registrations weighing up to 3.5 tonnes GVW. The Ford E-Transit Custom was second with 17.3% and the Peugeot e-Expert was third with 13.5%. The VW e-Transporter came fourth with an 11.4% share. The Toyota Proace City electric finished fifth, posting a 4.1% market share.
Sixth in the rankings was the Vauxhall e-Combo with a 3.4% share. It was followed by the Peugeot e-Partner in seventh, recording a 2.9% share. The Renault Trafic was eighth with a 2.7% share. The Mercedes-Benz eSprinter was ninth with a 2.7% market hold. Finally, the Maxus eDeliver 9 rounded off the top 10 thanks to a 2.6% share.
In the year to date, Ford registered 6,189 new electric LCVs weighing up to 3.5 tonnes GVW. These models encompassed three different product ranges and gave Ford a 27.7% share. VW was in second with 4,824 vehicles and a 21.6% share over two product ranges. Peugeot sat third with 2,383 deliveries across three product ranges, taking a 10.7% share.
Ford has been able to outsell its electric LCV competitors in terms of sheer volumes. However, the powertrain has only made up 6.5% of its overall van registrations so far this year. This is still less than half the headline ZEV-mandated target of 16%. Ford’s closest volume competitor, VW, is currently exceeding the target with 17.4%. Fifth-place Maxus sees electric vans making up 23.3% of its sales.
The plug-in hybrid (PHEV) van segment saw Ford, LEVC, Toyota and VW register a combined 1,281 units. Ford led the way with 590 Transit Custom, 257 Ranger and 109 Transit Connect PHEVs. Toyota followed with 248 Corolla Commercials. Then came VW with 74 Caddy PHEVs, while LEVC added 3 VN5 PHEV vans. In the year to date, 9,620 PHEV LCVs have been registered, with Ford claiming a dominant 77% share.
With new LCV registrations down significantly on last year, demand for used stock has only grown stronger. There has been increased buyer participation at auction and stronger competition for stock. This has resulted in improved conversion rates and increases in average sales prices.
This trend is expected to continue for the remainder of 2025 at least. Vehicles in good condition with sensible mileage, and ideally with a full-service history, will continue to perform well.
Ongoing cost pressures have meant many fleets are actively extending van contracts. Many auctions are reporting vehicle lifecycles pushed out to 60 months. This has resulted in an increase in the availability of older, higher-mileage stock in the run-up to the festive home-delivery season.
Demand continues for quality LCV stock that requires little or no work. Buyers are seeking out and paying strongly for medium and large panel vans. Chassis-based variants like Luton vans, dropsides and tippers are also seeing substantial interest from buyers.
Used LCV sales increased by 11.3% at auction in October. However, average age and mileage increased by 5.7 months and 3,369 miles (5421km), respectively. Average mileage now stands at 75,395, the highest since May. First-time conversion rates rose 2.1 percentage points (pp) to 89.9%. This is the highest position in the last 12 months, while average sales prices fell 5.5% in the month to just over £7,750 (€8,778).
Overall, sales were up 13.2% year on year, while average sales prices were up 17.4%. Average mileage over the last 12 months fell by over 5,600 miles. Average age was 6.2 months younger than a year ago, and first-time conversion rates were up 8.8pp.
Sales of Euro 6 vehicles fell by 3.7pp to 78% of the market, while Euro 5 sales rose 5.6pp to 20%. Medium vans led demand with 37.1% of sales, followed by small vans at 30.8%, and large vans at 22.3%.
The 4×4 pickup sector accounted for 9.8% of the market, an increase of 0.5pp. These vehicles also commanded the highest average sales price at over £13,500. Although these vehicles commanded the highest average sales price at over £13,500. Large vans covered more distance than any other vehicle type in October at an average of 88,928 miles. This was up nearly 8,000 miles on the previous month.
The latest data for October shows that sales of electric vans were down 21.9%. The average age of sold electric vans increased by 4.5 months to 33.6 months. However, this was 8.5 months younger than in October 2024.
Average mileage increased from 10,572 miles to 19,296 miles and now sits 20.6% higher than at the same point in 2024. First-time conversion rates fell from 79.5% to 61.4% in the month, as did average sale prices. These fell nearly 14% to just under £9,300.
The medium van sector accounted for nearly 60% of all used sales in October. Small vans accounted for just over 38.5% and the large van sector slightly above 1.5%.
The highest mileages were covered in the large van sector, averaging over 37,500 miles. Meanwhile, the lowest was recorded in the medium van sector at nearly 16,600 miles. Large electric vans attained the highest average sales price at £13,500 and the highest first-time conversion rate of 100%. Nearly 60% of electric vans sold in October were between two and four years old.
The number of used vans listed for sale in the retail market fell by nearly 1.9% in October. Diesel models made up the bulk of models on sale at 90.3%. BEVs made up 5.2%, ahead of petrol at 2.3% and PHEVs at 1.9%. Those with manual transmission accounted for 67.7% and automatics made up 32.3%.
Panel vans accounted for 56.4% of all LCVs on sale, while 15% were 4×4 pickups and 8.7% were crew vans. They were followed by minibuses at 4.1%, tippers and dropsides at 1.5%, and car-derived vans at 1%.
Of all listed vehicles, 41% were priced at £20,000 or more. Vehicles priced between £10,000 and £20,000 made up 36.7%, while 17.6% sat in the £5,000 to £10,000 range. Only 4.7% of vehicles were priced below £5,000.
White vans led in popularity, accounting for 49% of all listings. Then Grey with 17.4%, black with 10.2%, silver 10%, blue 6.6% and red 2.2%. Average vehicle age decreased by one month to 53 months, while average mileage increased by 0.1% to roughly 52,180 miles.
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